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The world economy is on the verge of crisis again, cryptocurrencies will be strong
Vulnerability refers to the property that things are vulnerable to damage when faced with fluctuations. -Nassim Nicholas Taleb In the face of economic fluctuations, it is disadvantageous to hold such a negative view. Every capital market has its own life cycle, which inevitably goes through a process from growth, to peak, and then to recession. Now is no exception. As we emerge from the longest bull market in history, we suddenly find ourselves in a highly vulnerable global economy facing the panicked and perplexed planet unprepared. However, the turmoil has just begun. Newton's first law, also known as "the law of inertia", means that any object must maintain a constant linear motion or standstill until an external force forces it to change its state of motion. Although this analogy does not perfectly correspond to the capital market (because the market is always changing and developing in different directions), at least one thing is certain that under the action of the market mechanism, the market cycle always appears Trend from peak to valley. The music box winds up, and the performance of the song sounds, and then it stops after a while. When this happens, the market structure collapses, eventually leading to huge chaos, and then falling into silence. Once external forces force the entire economy into trouble, people will realize the long-standing hidden structural defects in the economy. Now, the world economy is on the verge of crisis again. All human beings have to face a sudden outbreak of a global epidemic and the resulting shocks in supply and demand in the market. The economies of some countries have stalled. Ironically, the effects of inertia may be prevalent in market fluctuations. While witnessing the development of the global economy, we still find two simultaneous macro trends: --1-- USD strong We believe that the strong US dollar is driven by three factors: Investors turn to safe assets: Despite the Fed ’s interest rate cuts and monetary stimulus policies, the market ’s increasing demand for the US dollar has pushed up the US dollar index and hit a new high in 18 years. US Dollar Financing Issues: Cross-currency basis swaps measure that investors are more inclined to hold the US dollar than the euro or the yen. On March 17, the euro-dollar basis swap swap premium expanded from -60 basis points to -120 basis points, the highest level since 2011. As of press time, the Euro-US dollar basis swap has rapidly dropped to about -27 basis points, while the US dollar-Japanese yen basis swap has expanded to -70 basis points. Negative basis points indicate greater pressure on the dollar and higher hedging costs for European and Japanese investors. The reality is that U.S. banks, which are the main source of funding for the U.S. dollar, are storing large amounts of cash instead of actively issuing short-term U.S. dollar loans to foreign banks. Due to recent pressure from the balance sheet, more and more U.S. banks are beginning to reduce credit lines to retain cash. In addition, many foreign banks that lack direct access to the US dollar market can only rely on central bank liquidity swaps for financing. This week, the Fed and several other central banks opened new liquidity swap tools, providing USD 30 billion to USD 60 billion of liquidity, respectively, to ease pressure on USD financing. Central banks in emerging market countries are taking urgent steps and lowering their benchmark interest rates: Emerging market investors are very worried about the stability of their currencies and are pouring into the dollar market. According to Bloomberg, all major emerging market currencies weakened against the US dollar on January 20, just as the new crown virus began to spread in Asia. ——2—— Treasury liquidity tightening Abnormally performing credit markets: In general, price fluctuations will prompt investors to switch from risky assets (such as stocks) to safe-haven assets (such as bonds). This was indeed the case when the new coronavirus was causing panic. However, the current despair of liquidity (especially cash) by market investors has led to a large-scale sell-off in the global bond market, falling bond prices and rising interest rates. Repurchase market: The Federal Reserve's rescue measures have not brought the expected results. In the past week, the Federal Reserve announced three repurchases and other measures to release liquidity, hoping to ease the current state of the US Treasury market and reduce the inventory of primary dealers. However, market demand for government bonds remains sluggish. Let's turn our eyes from the home of the macro economy to the cryptocurrency market. Although they are not necessarily related, we find that the two are closely related. In the face of volatility, it is particularly important to develop a price action strategy. The CBOE-VIX index, an indicator that predicts the trend of the S & P 500 in the next 30 days, has surged to its highest level since the last global financial crisis. At the same time, we also saw that the 90-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options rose to 6.8% (annualized 130%), which is about 5.9% (annualized 113%) this weekend. As the "Black Thursday" on March 12th, BTC was down 40% and ETH was down 50%, some leveraged positions were forced to close. According to reports, BitMEX alone closed USD 700 million worth of long and short positions. At the same time, the sell-off of ETH dropped the value of the DeFi ecosystem by 40%. The total amount of collateral liquidation of Compound, dYdX and Maker and other lending platforms reached US $ 10 million. But in this turbulent market, not all assets perform so badly. Although the price of BTC, like the stock market at the beginning, plummeted, falling by 60% from the high price in mid-February, it rebounded by about 50% from the price low on March 12. Over the past period, we have found a large amount of funds flowing from altcoins to BTC. With the spot premium (the spot price is higher than the futures price), the demand for bitcoin lending has increased. The effective fund interest rate also gradually returned to normal as the curve was inverted. In contrast, when futures are at a premium (the futures price is higher than the spot price), there is almost no demand for BTC's lending transactions. At present, the BTC funding rate on various lending platforms has increased from 3-5% to 8%, and the ETH funding rate has increased from 2-4% to 6%. ——3—— Floating profit stablecoin market Since February 14, the entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a large-scale sell-off, with a market value of $ 45 billion evaporated. At the same time, the market value of USDT has risen to nearly $ 5 billion. USDT has emerged from this market volatility and has become a safe-haven asset. This week, the premium rate of USDT prices in China and South Korea is as high as 7%, which is caused by the demand of payment service providers and arbitrage traders. The current over-the-counter USDT supply exceeds supply. At the same time, the market value of USDC climbed to US $ 630 million, a record high. The market value of BUSD is exceeding the US $ 150 million mark, mainly due to the surge in demand for Binance's borrowing and margin trading. ——4—— Near-term outlook We pay close attention to the changing macroeconomic trends and the successive monetary and fiscal policies implemented by governments around the world. Although we cannot predict the specific trend of the market, we still believe that cryptocurrency as an asset class will be strong. In a nutshell, we think: ● Due to the recent sell-off in the market, the value of positions has shrunk sharply, making the distribution of positions in the market clearer. ● With the exit of market makers, the spread between major exchanges has brought more market arbitrage opportunities for retail traders. In particular, the derivatives market (futures and perpetual swaps) has seen a significant discount compared to the spot market, which has pushed up BTC's lending rate. ● By hedging the spot and long futures, market participants can carry out arbitrage trading, which is completely contrary to the market situation we saw last year (the futures price is significantly higher than the spot). ● Over the past six months, trading activities in the options market have grown rapidly. We expect that trading activities in the options market will continue to grow. ● At present, on our platform, institutional clients such as hedge funds, arbitrage traders, crypto companies, etc. have all bought a lot of BTC and USDT. Market volatility is part of investment. We believe that after a period of time, the economy will re-enter the upward trajectory, please let us work together for it.
After the Bitcoin crash: do others fear me for greed?
At 6:30 pm on March 12, Bitcoin dropped from $ 7211 to $ 5555.55. The bitcoin price dived again this morning, slumping nearly $ 2,000 again in half an hour, the lowest fell to $ 3,782.13, a drop of more than 40% in 24 hours. According to the data of the contract emperor, only Huobi, OKEx, Binance, and BitMEX exchanges had a daily short position of 3.133 billion US dollars, which reached the highest in a single day in history. The number of liquidated positions exceeded 110,000, which was also the highest in a single day. Also on March 12, the S & P index fell 260.74 points, triggering the fusing mechanism for the second time this week. The Dow hit its largest decline in history, at 2352.6 points. The Nasdaq fell 750.25 points to 7201.8 points. This is the third time in the history of US stocks. This fuse has been 33 years since the first fuse, but only 4 days have passed since the last fuse. Buffett shouted, "I only lived this way in 89 years." It is reported that Buffett lost $ 6.8 billion last night. According to incomplete statistics, with the exception of the United States, the stock markets of 11 countries including Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, and Pakistan plummeted. The five largest US technology companies, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft, had a cumulative market value of $ 416.63 billion. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that the top 15 richest people in the world lost a total of $ 46.4 billion. Market panic or pullback demand? Regarding the meltdown of U.S. stocks this week, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the spread of the epidemic is not the main reason. It is more a decade of bull market for U.S. stocks. Some factors driving the rise of U.S. stocks are quietly changing, such as the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate There is not much space. Regarding this crazy drop in Bitcoin, Apocalypse Capital told InfoQ that there are two main reasons for this drop in Bitcoin: on the one hand, the bearish demand caused by the expected global economic downturn, and on the other hand, Bitcoin Callback requirements themselves. As we all know, Bitcoin will be halved in the second half of the year, but the trading market pays attention to speculation expectations. This round of rise has essentially halved the market. After hitting a high of 10500, Bitcoin is facing a callback demand. Of course, this round of downtrends is so rapid and there are only a handful of recurrences in the history of Bitcoin, which are inextricably linked to the decline in global stock markets, both of which are the result of expectations of a bearish global economy. However, Johnson Xu, chief analyst of TokenInsight, told InfoQ that the Bitcoin dip was mainly due to market panic, because some market participants bought bitcoins by buying mining machines, borrowing, etc., and expected to reduce their expectations by half. A linkage effect caused by everyone being too optimistic about the market. The market is overhyped because Bitcoin is halved, and some market participants are afraid to miss the opportunity to enter the market irrationally. The current market slump is driven by strong irrational behavior, which translates into a rapid downside response and quickly depletes market buyers' liquidity (flattening down). When the overall financial market panic or other unexpected events are caused by the New Crown virus and the global economic slowdown, market participants often seek to withdraw assets such as stocks and bitcoins and convert these assets into cash (cash is king). So has the recent gold sell-off. When the market panics, people ask for cash in the beginning instead of investing in safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, because gold is considered a high-quality asset, investors usually start with liquidity crunch and market panic. Cash in on good assets (because inferior assets are more difficult to sell in panic times). The Bitcoin crash this time has a certain connection with the decline in global stock markets, because the entire financial market is a globalized market, and there is more or less linkage between each asset. In addition, Forbes speculated that it may be because PlusToken scammers transferred bitcoins worth more than 100 million US dollars to the mixer, and then sold bitcoins, resulting in rising market supply.
Other people are greedy, I am afraid, others are afraid of me, greedy? In this case, should investors still expect "halving the market"? Johnson Xu believes that there is no such thing as a "half quotation", and most market participants are too optimistic about the halving of Bitcoin. Price fluctuations are not necessarily caused by halving, but may be caused by the sum of other factors. When everyone is saying that they are optimistic about the market, the existence of risk is ignored in the subconscious. At this time, the risk will be actually reflected, and the upside will gradually shrink. Bitcoin halving was written into the code, and it was not an accident. Bitcoin should be halved in a rational way. It is worth looking forward to, but not overly interpreting and speculation. However, Tianqi Capital believes that this plunge is a callback period for bitcoin's halving of the market, and each round of sharp decline also indicates the opportunity of the market outlook: cheap chips will be hoarded, waiting for the next wave of hype and explosion. Therefore, Tianqi Capital still believes that the market outlook of Bitcoin is worth looking forward to, provided that it is not frightened by the current fierce washing of the chips, after all, when the bear market is the worst, it is also when gold is everywhere. Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, Apocalypse Capital stated that it should judge according to the current trend. In this round of market, Apocalypse Capital initially chose to follow the downward trend of May 18, and Bitcoin has gradually dropped from a high of 10,000 to 3150 points, so the big support level predicted by this round happens to be 3700 today. Near the point. Data monitoring shows that some funds are involved in this price range. But whether it can hold on to this support remains to be tested. If the 3700 support cannot be maintained, it is very likely that it will hit the US $ 2000 level. Tianqi Capital believes that this is the market's last line of defense. Long-term investment is recommended to buy some relatively stable targets, such as BTC, ETH, etc. The bear market will eliminate many currencies, but if it survives, it will shine in the next round. Johnson Xu believes that the plunge is also a test to promote the healthy development of the industry. Extreme market is a test for the entire industry, especially for infrastructure, risk management, etc., so it is still optimistic and supports the development of the industry for a long time. For current investors, Johnson Xu offers the following suggestions:
Other people are greedy, I am afraid, others are afraid of me, greedy.
Global financial markets have also undergone major changes. From the data point of view, I don't think Bitcoin has the attributes of a safe-haven asset, but this market can test whether Bitcoin has a certain risk-avoidance capability. This is a global world. We need to analyze various markets, not just the digital asset market.
In the long run, we are still optimistic about the digital asset industry.
Does Bitcoin have a fusing mechanism? On March 9, after the U.S. stock market crash triggered the fusing mechanism, the market began a discussion of "whether Bitcoin should set up a fusing mechanism". But at present, most people are not optimistic about the Bitcoin fusing mechanism. OKEx CEO Jay Hao said that the fusing mechanism is difficult to implement in the digital currency market. In the face of a highly volatile market, setting the fuse point is a difficult problem. At the same time, for a 7 * 24h market, when a certain exchange breaks down, the price difference between the digital currencies between the platforms will increase, leading to arbitrage, and the fuse mechanism will eventually become a decoration. Du Wan, the co-founder of Contract Emperor, also said that it is unrealistic to use a fuse mechanism in the currency circle. The fusing mechanism first violates the original intention of the decentralization of the blockchain, and at the same time, it will touch the interests of the top of the currency circle ecological chain. For example, large trading teams can no longer use pins to obtain large profits. When the market is panic, exchanges with a fuse mechanism may lose traffic to exchanges without a fuse mechanism because of the run effect of traders. It can be seen that the current risk aversion measures in the traditional stock market are difficult to transfer to the fickle currency market in a short time, and the regulation of this market still has a long way to go. Investors should still be cautious when investing.
https://preview.redd.it/6in97egosnx31.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2e4d1b052b295cb3da49f604fab7a6113321210 I wrote this lecture on the methodology of successful trading, and more specifically on tactics, strategies, subtleties and recommendations, based on 2 years of work on Bitmex, Binance, Gate, Okex bitcoin cryptocurrency exchanges in real combat conditions. Guided by this technique, I managed to earn 500% in excess of the deposit for 7 days of trading (i.e. I increased the deposit amount by 5 times!). These are not fairy tales, but reality, that is, confirming statistics of exchange transactions on the account of the crypto-exchange.
I believethat the knowledge provided in this course will help a beginner tomaster successful tradingonly if the course is not only read, but also outlined. It will be important to follow punctually, commenting on your actions in your notes.
In separate consultations, I could give personal instructions on the nuances of technical analysis on various timeframes, signals on entry points, information on trade automation software (algorithmic trading robots), and other tools useful in the work of a trader. But, despite a lot of additional software, my experience has shown that the most effective speculation model on the cryptocurrency and stock exchange, which everyone chooses for themselves based on practical experience, is directly in the online trading mode on exchange terminals. Each exchange is good in its own way, but also has its drawbacks. I chose the best solution for myself and am sure that this is temporary. Perhaps in the future there will be more progressive decentralized exchanges with good liquidity and they will replace the existing platforms managed by market leaders. Various digital designations, such as: — in what percentage of the deposit do you enter into a particular transaction; — where to put stop limit or market (Market) (market) orders (and whether to place them at all), where to exit the transaction and how. Again, I note that all the selected values are usually individual and depend both on the time trading intervals (TimeFrame) (1m 3m 15m 1h 3h 4h 6h 1 d 1w 1m) and on the deductible amount of the bet in % percentage of the amount of your deposit. It is important to remember that trading in the cryptocurrency market is a high-risk investment activity that everyone chooses and carries out at their own risk. Remember that with a big bet on the whole, as they say, a patty, and even with 100x-500x leverage, you risk losing your entire deposit right away. An exchange machine or a well-tuned and trained professional broker robot does not cost anything to go against the trend with a tidbit — easy prey. Do not be hamsters i.e. naive simpletons — do not merge the deposit into zero due to elementary greed, incontinence, ardor and other factors that contradict the qualities that a professional trader needs to succeed in trading, namely: cold-bloodedness, endurance, accuracy, punctuality, tact, quick reaction , the ability to quickly enter numbers and timely press the desired buttons.
You ask me: “Hey … guy, you are so smart … I wonder how much you earned from trading or how much you earn or why you don’t do it yourself … why do you need competitors?” — I will answer you: it is no secret that AI (artificial intelligence) has been working on the exchange for a long time and it is constantly improving, but this still does not prevent a person from continuing to beat him. I hope that in the future this trend will not stop otherwise — we have disappeared. And as regards competition — do not worry so much for me, because there is still a trading idea, program or terminal that I have not yet implemented and not reported in this guide after its publication and, perhaps, it will not deprive me of future trading opportunities.
So, the instructions that I follow in the process of trading cryptocurrencies on the exchange terminal in online mode.
It is necessary to wait for the moment of the entry point. You need to enter the deal only then, you feel it and foreseen it in advance according to the levels of the daily period.
It is necessary to carefully weigh their capabilities, ie to consider funds, understanding that futures trading (with leverage) leads to greater risks of liquidation / margin call (MarginCall).
During growth, you need to fix profit and try to sell at a pullback. It is always possible to re-enter a deal, but it is unlikely to return lost profits, instead, you can get several hours of dead weight in the price movement opposite from the planned direction.
It is very important to have cost control, namely, the timely Stop Limit (stop trade order) + sliding Stop Loss (the same thing, only with insurance against a sharp price movement).
It is easy to understand the wave component and accept the movement by levels — press exit buttons in time at 2% and + 10% according to the 1 to 5 principle (we risk one part of the deposit against 5). The Pareto effect has not been canceled: 20% activity, gives 80% effectiveness.
To work with Japanese candles, the ability to draw support levels and resistance lines is enough, but this is not enough for a professional, because the presence of modern advanced indicators, such as MACD, SRSI, Ichimoku Cloud / Signal, horizontal and vertical volume indicator and so on, is very important. Everyone chooses for themselves the indicator that brings more profit to a certain trading range. But remember — the main criterion for success is an understanding of the laws of the market and trade by market. Perhaps this applies to the field of extrasensory perception, metaphysics, and other obscure and hard to prove phenomena and sciences, but one way or another — intuition is clear and has a place to be.
In no case should you enter into short-term breakthrough deals on minute trading with market uncertainty. The situation where minute fluctuations may seem like reversal movements is often quite misleading. If you are in a pose (bull — for growth / long or bear — for fall / short) do not retreat and the market will not slow you to please you with profit. Often, a stock price feed / the same chart manipulates the minds of players, displaying false breakdowns and minute movements, on the basis of which you can not rely on a trend change (this lie is especially evident in minute time intervals / timeframes). In such cases, make decisions only at fundamental levels. On the hourly chart you will see a more truthful picture, because globally, on markets other than minute timeframes, the market is less susceptible to momentary manipulations. This knowledge will give you firmness in the intention and decision-making to remain in the chosen position and not to respond to minor market manipulations. During the day, you may repeatedly wish to unreasonably enter into such transactions, but remember that in this case you will be guaranteed to drain the deposit. Remember — the market from the middle of the trend will go up up or down and hit the stop limit order placed by you (if you play with a large leverage not for your money), after which it will go in the right direction you have chosen. Although in general the situation is banal — you are led by the nose like thousands as well as you. The only true method is to use common sense and avoid uncertainty when trying to enter a pose. A historical analysis of prices, the frequency of ranges (delta) of ups and downs, the degree of volatility and fundamental approaches — to help you. I also want to add that success is in your hands and it consists in the realization of the need not to merge a deposit under any circumstances.
You cannot leave the market unattended, the alarm of the price change alarm is not in your favor or without a stop limit at a reliable exchange platform (broker).
Once again I repeat, you must be prepared in advance for the fact that the market is deceiving and unexpected movements can often occur and your task is to secure your funds with a stop on the market or to fix profit by a floating stop or a fixed stop limit.
Risk management — the basis of success in trading when trading with leverage (margin trading). It is usually recommended to go into a deal at 2% of the deposit with x leverage and stop from profit in the ratio of 1 to 5. What does this mean and why is this risk / profit sharing technique so important?It is necessary to clearly calculate probabilistic lumbago in order to avoid elimination. I recommend you not to rush into bets, but to take a sheet of paper and bargain virtually in order to understand whether your calculations were correct. A virtual game is worth nothing, but it will save you money and keep the deposit safe and sound.
The wave theory assumes entry into the transaction after completion and a clear change in the previous trend based on signals and the news background, incl. experience of the current subject of trade — the operator pushing the buttons. For example, in the absence of price movement in the direction of the RSI indicator, analysis of all time frames with indicators, fibonacci levels, correction degree phase, time of day in time zones, stock and commodity market readings.
It is important, before starting trading, test the presence of a manipulator on the market using the method of high rates. If you are looking for an entry into a major deal in a few weeks, keep in mind that a stop with a loss can be a significant amount in the money equivalent that you are ready to lose, and if the deal does not take place in your favor, you must set yourself up in advance for what it should be. Because a successful trader is not one who regularly guesses successful transactions, but one who successfully completes one out of five transactions according to risk management and the calculation of the leverage calculator in accordance with the chosen strategy.
A lost position can be closed without waiting for the reverse restoration of the bidding process, thus manually participating in the balance adjustment or by setting a stop limit order in advance or after the bid in case of further decline or growth.
There is an assumption that at the end of the working day, with a likely depreciation, traders convert stocks into fiat (money), which contributes to a depreciation, but this is not accurate)
Incorrect entry into the transaction. How important is it to exit an unsuccessful transaction as early as possible or at the first rollback to change the direction of the trend or wait to determine a new entry point.
The presence of two accounts on the exchange terminal is possibleand desirable in order to be able to remain in a winning position regardless of the success of the initially selected trading direction (a technique requiring careful verification by personal experience with a clear definition of the margin leverage and % of the entry into the transaction from the deposit balance to minimize the risk of loss).Successful trading does not consist in the ability to conclude as many successful trades as possible, but in minimizing losses.
Technology is improving and strategies are changing. Before entering a transaction, it is necessary to carefully analyze the current market situation using a comparative analysis, studying the general news background (guided by the ***“buy for expectations — sell on the news”***postulate), detecting a flat (sideways), determining the level of instrument volatility (gold, oil, funds , bitcoins / cryptocurrencies — digital coins, etc.)
Immediately put a stop — is a guarantee of success or a drain of the deposit? After all, how to cope with their own feelings and not get into anxiety about a successful or unsuccessful transaction? The gradual entry scheme works well.
Coins. We look at the trading delta with the help of a robot scanner and make a decision based on all the above criteria in the course. It has been noticed that amateurs buy coins in the hope of growth. Remember, the market for altcoins is not growing now.
A favorable time for earning is at the time of a flat, which usually occurs after the rising flag or the implementation of a bull pennant figure, etc. It will be more clear to observe the schedule in real mode and make the required notes in your own mind.
On the cryptocurrency market, some laptop microprocessors are heated and the fan turns on at peak times. This indicates the beginning of a sharp movement and is a signal to enter the deal. Therefore, you can not only observe the behavior of the market, but now also listen (this is my personal note, it is unlikely that you will find such information somewhere else, as they say — an exclusive / VIP signal;)).
You can still write a lot about time, how much can or should be spent on the monitor, on which timeframes to trade and which strategies to follow, but everyone should choose this independently and preferably, under the guidance of a specialist, because what is applicable to one is to the other — contraindicated.
In fact, any market situation should be beneficial for you due to successful risk management*!*For successful online trading, it is very important to use candlestick and technical analysis*, which help to more accurately determine the entry point to the transaction (purchase or sale).*You cannot act at random when the market is hard to predict and often ready to follow your footsteps.If you lose, then I do not recommend immediately going to recoup*, because trade should ultimately be break even. In ardor, you are likely to enter into an unsuccessful deal and lose even more than before. This situation will make you very sad, so do not make this mistake. She is famous.*Use amodern powerful laptop or desktop computer with a convenient side numeric keypad, a large screen and a convenient manipulator (mouse)so that when you press the buttons you have as little physical braking and stops as possible.Practice in advance to work in the browser on the exchange terminal without making a deposit on futures trading from the exchange wallet. This training practice will reduce your losses.
Hello from Ukraine, Kramatorsk city ( “War is peace / freedom is slavery [and] ignorance is strength.”) Reslav Cryptotrader (if you need find me look around — me be i near ;). To be continued… http://twitter.com/reslav1 P.S.: Nowadays, money strives to be counted more and more. Using the information technology of databases with indexes, it has become possible to automatically and instantly capture and display the information that was previously collected by entire departments of the state within a month and after manual entry was displayed on the screens of industrial monitors and public television. The era of the Internet has come, the time of the accessibility and decentralization of information. Today we see stock chart quotes of stock prices of leading world companies online. Everyone has the opportunity to invest their money in these stocks and earn on the difference in exchange rates of their value. A speculative market was formed on this basis, where leaders appeared who were able to act most efficiently and, accordingly, earn money. Many specialists are studying the nature of success in speculative markets. Many works on methods of achieving success in trading are morally obsolete due to the emergence of new technologies for calculating and controlling the money supply, for example, such as Bitcoin. After all, back in 2009 for 1309.03 BTC they gave 1 dollar. Today 1 BTC costs $ 9,000. This is due to the fact that since the appearance of bitcoin has never been hacked and the technology has shown its reliability and consistency, as a measure of the money invested in it. I will not go into the details and subtleties of Bitcoin technology, but I will note one thing — this is cryptographic software that was used in the banking sector as Swift payments, but transformed into a P2P peer-to-peer network of private computers, as a result, like Bittorent, it became public, hard controlled, commons. Bitcoin provides for a complexity bomb, which complicates each year, and therefore makes it more expensive, its limited production, and this is one of the main reasons for its rise in price. As well as the fact that Bitcoin is convenient for storing funds, as it is liquid and it can be easily sent without quantity restrictions and with high transaction (transfer) speed. All details about Bitcoin are available in open sources and you can find out everything about it on the Internet, as well as the alternative coin market (altcoins / coins), such as Ethereum, USDT (dollar tokens confirmed by a US company with real dollars in bank accounts) etc. Around this market of bitcoin cryptocurrencies, the same speculative matrix (network / exchange) arose as around ordinary currencies and created such a strong competition for traditional assets that many governments adopted it and began to use and implement technologies that arose in their turn base. Cryptocurrencies or blockchain (cryptographic chain / blocks / chain) began to be introduced in public sectors of the economy for calculating and controlling public commons, such as electricity, land, etc. Further, on the basis of this market, the need for regulation arose and the US authorities were very worried about the uncontrolled development of technology, on the basis of which a news background (negative or positive) arose, which powerfully affects cryptocurrency rates. In the era of information, this network began to act as a money pump, skillfully pumping money from the hands of inept speculators into the pockets of experienced traders. As a result of reading a lot of books, watching various telecasts in the industry of bitcoin trading analytics, I came to the conclusion that successfully trading cryptocurrencies is akin to art and as statistics have shown, only 20% in 2–3 years are able to consistently earn money, and of which, in turn, only 2 -3% become billionaires. I bring to your attention a technique by which you can enter the ranks of these 20% successful traders and possibly, jointly, open the door to those notorious 2–3% successful traders who are fortunate enough to touch the notorious golden fleece and discover the world of unlimited financial opportunities. All knowledge is available in open sources and collected by me in the book “Basics of Bitcoin Trading from Reslav” (2019), most of them are available.
Super Beginners Guide to getting started in Cryptocurrency. (written from a Canadians Perspective)
Getting Started in Crypto What is cryptocurrency? In the most basic sense a cryptocurrency is an encrypted currency (generally decentralized but not always) that functions on a blockchain. This was executed first by satoshi nakamoto in 2008 after the financial crisis caused by the crash of the housing market. The creation of bitcoin and blockchain solved the double spending problem, which in turn paved the way for everything that has and will come. What is blockchain? This question can be answered in many ways, for sake of this guide I’m just going to do it in the simplest and if you want more detail I am happy to provide. “The blockchain is an incorruptible digital ledger of economic transactions that can be programmed to record not just financial transactions but virtually everything of value”. What that means is that it’s a system the cannot be corrupted, and records everything done on a given exchange network. In terms of currency that means that every transaction is recorded somewhere on the blockchain. In terms of other goods or services there are endless possibilities. Coin vs Token. In its most basic sense a coin is a cryptocurrency unit that is exactly that, a currency. Generally, the early players in the cryptocurrency world are coins. You have coins such as bitcoin, litecoin, and monero. A token on the other hand is a cryptocurrency that has a broader function. These tend to be the new school of crypto and you get things like ether, ripple, raiblocks, and so on. It is important to be able to distinguish between the two so that you know exactly what you end up investing in. Exchanges and Wallets. So, once you finally decide you want to get involved the first steps are to find yourself a wallet and exchange for your desired currency. Wallets can be found online and generally most cryptocurrencies have designated wallets you can find on their website. Exchanges are where your fiat currency (things like cad and usd) and then exchange for whatever you desire. Coinbase is the biggest exchange as of right now, however it isn’t Canadian friendly and only holds 4 currencies as of now (that number will change in the future). I personally use Quadrigacx, it is a Canadian exchange based out of Vancouver where uploading fiat currency is easy once you become verified (submit required documents). It is very secure, and I have had no problems with it to date. Now, quadrigacx only exchanges a handful of currencies so if you are looking for one that isn’t on there these will be your steps. Wire capital to quadrigacx, buy BTC, transfer your BTC to an exchange that carries what you like, and purchase it through there. The list of exchanges I use, and trust include: bittrex, binance, kucoin, yobit, coinexchange.io. kraken, and radar relay. Now once you start to get involved I suggest you stick to quadrigacx, bittrex, binance. Those are the major players and by far the easiest to use. Once you get more accustomed to the environment of trading then I would say branching out is a good idea. What to buy? Fuck, good question. The most important question you must ask yourself is do you want a short or long-term investment. To start your journey, I would say long term would be the best bet. You can purchase some crypto, watch it go, pay attention to the market and what influences it and make some steady gains (hopefully). Long term investments are held (in my opinion) for at minimum three weeks. My rule of thumb for long term investments is that it must fit 3 criteria. It must be a technology I believe in and like, a reputable team must back it, and it MUST BE SCALABLE. If something fits those then I’m in for the long haul. Now short-term investments are not day trading. What I mean by short term investments are small shitcions that have good ideas, followings, and has potential to gain fast traction. Personally, when I choose short term investments I like them to be under 2 dollars and I hold them for 3 days to 3 weeks. If I’m not happy with them at any time within that period, then I’m out. DON’T BE A GREEDY SON OF BITCH Now to elaborate on my previous points, if you have a long-term investment… ITS SUPPOSED TO BE LONG TERM. Now I’m not saying you can never walk away with profit because profit isn’t profit until you pull it out. This is kind of a double-edged sword and this is what distinguishes good traders from average. You need to have the stomach to hold when others pull out and panic sell, and you need to have the brains to pull out before it crashes. In other words, you need to be smart about every single action you make in the crypto world and you need to make every decision for yourself. Not because you read some crackpot of reddit panic selling over a 2% dip. INFORMATION INFORMATION INFORMATION You must understand that cryptocurrency is not stocks. You are not buying into a company, you are purchasing a good. This is imperative to understand. The cryptocurrency world does not sleep like the stock market does, it is constantly moving whether you are paying attention to it or not. This means that sometimes you are going to get lucky and stumble upon something at 2am on a Tuesday night that could make you rich, or maybe you lose out on something because you were sleeping. Shit happens, and you can’t dwell on it. It is a volatile market and you must do the best you can in the present moment and not get caught up in the past or future. Those who try to predict the market lose it all. Be smart all the time and think every decision through. Information is constantly flowing which means you need to be an active member in the community if you want to stay on top of it, this means reddit, google news, telegram, discord, and people. It is so easy to network and get involved, and it really is an overall safe and good community. One of the best parts of cryptocurrency is that everyone involved wants it to succeed, and for it to succeed everyone needs to help everyone. That is why I am writing this for you. You need to constantly be educating yourself. Understand that you can’t be an expert, but you can be educated. There will always be others out there who know more than you, and you must be willing to find and learn from them. Be respectful and ask questions ALL THE TIME. Is it a bubble? Notice how I didn’t ask the question “will it crash” because the answer to that is always going to yes. That is how people buy low and sell high to make money. You want to get in low, and sell before it crashes. In the past 2 months the crypto world has experienced 3 major crashes. All of them has recovered and all of them were great opportunities to make good money. Like I said, be smart and try your best to be ahead of the game. That being said you are going to lose money at times. That is okay, just make sure you learn from it. Sometimes it can be attributed to poor decision making, and other times its just shit luck. ITS OKAY. In my opinion crypto currency is not a bubble. Blockchain technology has the ability to change the world in radical ways we haven’t even thought of yet. For something to be a bubble it must lack utility, but everyday more and more utility comes around for cryptocurrency. Whether it be buying goods with bitcoin or banks implementing ripple into their everyday business life. Safety Now in an online world you must do a lot on your own. This means you must be safe about everything. Double and triple check everything, avoid anything you don’t 100% believe in, and keep everything safe. This means all your passwords and code need to be written down in at least 3 places as well as up your ass for good measure. You lose your shit you lose your money. Simple. Don’t be fucking around and handing anything out to anyone because in an environment where you can make everything in an hour… you can lose more in seconds. So be weary and trust your gut. And that’s it for the basic guide. If you have any more questions or want more in depth knowledge or insight I’m happy to give what I know upon further request. Remember that this is a volatile market and everything I said it just MY opinion and knowledge. Take it with a grain of salt and question everything for yourself. Don’t invest anything you aren’t willing to lose and be involved for the right reasons. Cheers and good luck.
What is Bitcoin? Bitcoin is a form of digital currency, created and held electronically. No one controls it. Bitcoins aren’t printed, like dollars or euros – they’re produced by people, and increasingly businesses, running computers all around the world, using software that solves mathematical problems. It’s the first example of a growing category of money known as cryptocurrency. It was created in 2009 by a software developer called Satoshi Nakamoto. The idea was to produce a currency independent of any central authority, transferable electronically, more or less instantly, with very low transaction fees. This is a video that explains it better: Bitcoin Why are a lot of people talking about it? Bitcoin's price skyrocketed in 2017. From around $1,000 per Bitcoin, it is now $11,000. Alternative coins (or altcoins), like Ethereum and Litecoin, went up by as much 1000% this year as well. I have a lot of friends who became millionaires because of Bitcoin just this year. How do I buy Bitcoin?
Download the coins.ph app from the app store. If you find this guide useful, you can use my referral code. here If you finish the level 2 verification, we'll both get 50 pesos.
From there, you can load money to your account thru 7-11 outlets or thru banks. You can convert the Peso you deposited into Bitcoin in your account. Note that the price of Bitcoin fluctuates throughout the day, so it is best to convert when the price of Bitcoin is low. If you want to withdraw your money from the app, you can do so via Banks, GCash, etc.
There are also similar apps, like Abra, or physical stores like Moneybees, but I have no experience using them. I believe you can buy Ethereum in Abra and Moneybees. How do I earn money? You can keep your Bitcoin in your coins.ph account, HOLD, and wait for the price of Bitcoin to go up. There was this person who posted here in reddit about a few weeks ago that he earned 50k from an initial investment of 35k. I started a few months ago and earned double my initial investment. If you want to trade, you can transfer your bitcoin from your coins.ph account, to exchanges like Bittrex, Binance, or Poloniex. There are other exchanges, but these are the ones I'm familiar with. Once you've transferred your Bitcoin there, you can buy other coins. Trading is very risky and I do not recommend it if you do not have prior experience. You can lose a lot of money overnight or even in a few minutes. https://poloniex.comhttps://www.binance.comhttps://www.bittrex.comhttps://www.coinbase.com Stocks, or Bitcoin? The returns if you invest in Bitcoin are huge, potentially. The coins are limited in number, it is becoming harder and harder to mine, and with more people becoming aware of Bitcoin and wanting to invest in it, it will drive the price up. Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies can go up by 10%, 20% or even 100% or higher overnight. However, you can lose just as much. The prices are very volatile that one good or bad news can affect its price by a lot. Also, people argue that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. For stocks, the value is determined by the performance of the company, its assets, earnings, etc. Bitcoin doesn't have that. The price is determined by the demand for it. The banks hate Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for good measure and have been calling it a "bubble". I'd still say that diversifying your investment is still the best way to go. Bitcoin's price is too high. What can I do? You don't have to buy 1 bitcoin for 550,000 pesos. You can buy .5, .05, or even .001 Bitcoin. You can also buy other cryptocurrencies. The top cryptocurrencies after Bitcoin are: Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, IOTA, Dash, Litecoin, Bitcoin Gold, NEO, etc. If you want to own other coins, transfer your Btc to an exchange, and you can buy the other coins there. You can track your monies by downloading the Blockfolio app. Trust me, there's no better feeling than waking up in the morning to see that you've earned a lot of money while sleeping. You can check them by going to https://coinmarketcap.com. What is Mining? Imagine depositing money in a bank. The bank's database stores the information that you deposited the money and how much you have. In Bitcoin, People are sending bitcoins to each other over the bitcoin network all the time, but unless someone keeps a record of all these transactions, no-one would be able to keep track of who had paid what. The bitcoin network deals with this by collecting all of the transactions made during a set period into a list, called a block. It’s the miners’ job to confirm those transactions, and write them into a general ledger. They are rewarded with the transaction fees and coins. I personally don't mine, but from what I've gathered, a "mining rig" costs between 100k-180k pesos depending on the number of video cards. The average ROI is around 4-6 months.
It might be part of every job in crypto to anticipate and react to fast-moving developments that seemingly change the industry’s direction overnight. And apparently not even Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, the high-profile leader of Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, is immune to the industry’s capricious shifts. In a video interview with CoinDesk’s Muyao Shen, Zhao ... Square CEO Jack Dorsey says Bitcoin holds the keys to security Crypto ETP volumes fell in September as investors sought safer options This non-Ethereum based DeFi project has $180M staked so far At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s Stock To Flow ratio is hovering at around 25. After the next halving in May 2020, the ratio will increase to the low 50s. In the image below, you can see the historical relationship of the 365-day moving average of Bitcoin’s Stock to Flow with its price. Mati Greenspan, the founder of Quantum Economics, noted on the drop in realised volatility compared to Nasdaq. He tweeted, Bitcoin volatility way lower than the Nasdaq by historic measures. Source: Tweet The measure of Implied Volatility. The massive open interest (OI) across the options market is calling for tremendous volatility in Bitcoin ... Volatility is most frequently discussed in the stock market, and due to its importance in evaluating risk, well-established systems (volatility indexes) exist within traditional markets to measure and potentially anticipate future volatility levels. For instance, the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index (VIX) is used within the American stock market. The VIX index uses option ... The spread between the six-month implied volatility (IV) for ether (ETH) and bitcoin (BTC), a measure of expected relative volatility between the two, fell to a 2.5-month low of 4% over the ... Volatility measures the variance of the price of a certain financial instrument within a certain period of time. It is commonly associated with the risk level of the instrument, a highly volatile instrument is regarded as risky and a less volatile instrument as less risky. Therefore, it is important to understand the volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies if you are looking to invest ... Related Story: Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Says Bitcoin May Fade Away This trend has led some to question if the price of Bitcoin may be an indicator of the stock market’s future value. Dominic Chu of CNBC Business News described Bitcoin as a possible “tea leaf” that stock market investors might use to determine investment strategy.. It’s not unusual for traders to rely on secondary ... First Mover: Binance CEO Sees Future in DeFi While Bitcoin Volatility… Bitcoin. Bitcoin Miner Producer Ebang Blames Coronavirus for 50% Slump in Revenue… Bitcoin. Cryptojacking: A Rising Threat to All Internet Users. Bitcoin. Bitcoin veteran who made $10 billions profit shares his strategy. Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s Bearish September Has Kneecapped Crypto ETP Activity: Report – CoinDesk ... First Mover: Binance CEO Sees Future in DeFi While Bitcoin Volatility Turns Minuscule. TOPICS: Binance Bitcoin Coinbase DeFi Ethereum First Mover Markets news Newsletters. Posted By: Muyao Shen September 29, 2020. It might be part of every job in crypto to anticipate and react to fast-moving developments that seemingly change the industry’s direction overnight. And apparently not even ...
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